The Third Time’s a Charm

The Third Time’s a Charm

by M.G. Ross

#MGRossFootball

You’ve heard this one, right? When you and your friends are talking about preseason NFL football, some wise elder statesman says:  “preseason – it doesn’t count, but it does matter.”   If you’re like me, you’re beginning to wonder if it even matters any more.  Starters who used to play a game or two now play a series or two; the first week’s games looks like a bad college league, and the fourth game is just a cattle call of guys about to get cut.

SportingCharts.com has a great analysis of preseason performance vs. regular season performance. They looked at preseason records and winning performance, compared that with regular season results, and crunched it all into their giant computer. Their conclusion: your record in the preseason means … pretty much nothing at all.

So, why watch – other than because we are so football-starved by August, we will watch just about anything?

Consider this. If there is one game that might, maybe, maybe matter, it’s the weekend just passed: preseason week #3.  That’s when we get a glimpse of what the regular season teams might look like, and if a team lets their starters onto the field, this is when we see them.  (Perhaps the only time we will see them, #TonyRomo.)

So, just for fun, I took a look at the third preseason game for the Super Bowl winners of the past 10 years. Turns out, 8 out of 10 won their third game.  Now, that doesn’t mean they won all their preseason games, or even most of their preseason games.  But they did, 80% of the time, win game #3.

(Fun fact for trivia nuts: the two times in the past 10 years that the Super Bowl winning team lost in week three of the preseason, both times it was the New York Giants.  Go figure.)

Now, I hear ya. Half of the league won their 3^rd game of the preseason.  Every year, in fact.  So, what’s the big deal?  Maybe not much.  But if you had an 80% of being right on your next prediction, that would feel pretty good, right?  So, here’s what I say:  we can’t predict how well a team will do, based on the preseason.  And we certainly can’t predict who will win the Super Bowl based on the preseason.  But we might be able to predict (with an 80% degree of certainty) who won’t win the Super Bowl this year.

For your reading pleasure (or pain), here are the teams who lost their 3^rd preseason game this August.  Don’t bet on them for winning it all this season:

Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, LA Rams, New Orleans Saints, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers.

If your team is not on this list, rejoice!  There’s still hope for the 2016 season.

M.G.Ross is a writer, blogger, and author of “Are You Ready for Some Football, 2016.”